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Weekly Forex Forecast (17 – 21 April 2017)

EURUSD – Euro/Dollar

EurUsd closed the the week only 24 pips above the open price and is still busy with the abc correction.

A comment from President Trump concerning the strength of the US Dollar spurred a relief rally (Wave A), but gains were short lived (Wave B in the late stages of completing)

With a deep wave B, we possibility of a flat wave C is very possible.  Ideal selling area this week still the same as last week, (Grey box), between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

This week we will again look for selling opportunities , on this bearish wave structure we will not be buying.

A close below the Channel support would expose the next key support at 1.0500 and the year low 1.0365.  Also note the Ascending channel pattern (which has bearish implications).

See our Channel breakout strategy cheat sheet here and our Complete guide on trading Waves.

Strategy this week: Looking for selling opportunities between 1.0737 and 1.0776, with invalidation level at 1.0905.  Targets at 1.0500 and 1.0365

GBPUSD – Pound/Dollar

GbpUsd trading in a big Triangle.  Below see the wave structure, triangle in wave B, targeting a possible flat Wave C (ABC Corrective pattern).

Wave E might be complete in the bigger triangle (See the daily chart below)

So we favour bullish move higher while market is above 1.2360 and our target is between 1.2615 and 1.2700

See our cheat sheet on how to trade Triangles

Strategy this week: Looking for buying opportunities this week at 1.2430 on pull backs (retest of a smaller triangle on the 4 hourly chart), with invalidation level at 1.2360

NZDUSD – Kiwi/Dollar

NzdUsd forming good bullish signals.  We are still bullish on NzdUsd whilst above 0.6910.

Wave structure suggest a bullish move, Descending channel and pin bar = all bullish signals.

And on Friday NzdUSd closed with an inside pin bar.  See our full course on Pin Bars and Inside Bars here…

Strategy this week: Already Long on this trade, we will target 0.7120 this week (next resistance level)  See our Active trades here

 

USDJPY – Dollar/Yen

Last week we said we are only bullish around the two equal legs at 108.80 .  UsdJpy currently trading on support levels and in our buying zone.

With Trump comments we may look a little lower now

We will focus on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and also previous support/resistance levels at 107.77

We do expect a bounce soon, but we do not want to try and catch a falling knife.  So we will wait for price action buying opportunities this week.

Invalidation level comes in at 105.00.  UsdJpy trading in a possible 4th wave, and current price action is corrective and we should see prices higher soon

Strategy this week: Looking for long opportunities in support area 108.40 and 107.77, with invalidation level at 105.00

XAUUSD – Gold

Gold still trading inside the Ascending channel and Trump comments helping Gold higher to test the next resistance level around 1306.

Wave structure is seen still in possible wave 3 and we remain bullish on Gold.

We are not interested in selling Gold, we would rather wait for pull backs to trade inline with the bullish momentum.

Next support area now will be 1240/41

Strategy this week: Staying aside, risk reward ratio not favourable for any entry.  Wait for lower prices to look for buying opportunities (whilst above 1200)